With the recent news that a 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle rookie card has become the most expensive sports card of all time, selling for over $12 million, it's a good time to revisit the most valuable sports cards in each sport.
As with most asset classes, the main value driver for sports cards is scarcity, with difficult to find vintage cards, highly graded modern cards and limited print run cards at the top of the list. Rookie cards are always going to be the most valuable card for a certain athlete, and for modern cards, the rookie patch auto (RPA; a signed rookie card with an equipment patch, usually a cutout of a player-worn jersey) cards take the crown. Of course, cards of the best players tend to be the most valuable, but more than that, it’s players who have maintained a cultural following during and after their careers that become the most desirable. Ted Williams was a better player than Mickey Mantle, but Mantle’s cards are more valuable. Tim Duncan was every bit as good as Kobe Bryant, but Kobe’s cards are more valuable.
Here’s a list of the highest sales in every major sport as of now:
Baseball: 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle SGC 9.5 - $12.6 million
Basketball: 2003-04 LeBron James Exquisite RPA /23 BGS 9.5 - $5.2 million (A 2009 Stephen Curry Logoman 1/1 card sold privately for a reported sum of $5.9 million, the record holder is disputed as of now).
Football: 2017 Patrick Mahomes Panini National Treasures Logoman 1/1 - $4.3 million
Hockey: 1979 Wayne Gretzky O-Pee-Chee PSA 10 - $3.75 million
Soccer: 1958 Alifabolaget Pele PSA 9 - $1,100,000
The Sports Card Market
The sports card market is not a monolith and its movements as a whole do not necessarily dictate the movements of different sub-classes. Beyond the differences between modern and vintage discussed above, every sport moves in its own way, generally rising in demand and price during the season and falling in the off-season. Macro trends in popularity also affect price movements between sports, with basketball cards now leading the way. The international popularity of soccer combined with collecting’s growth globally could very well see another changing of the guard in coming years.
The market for high-end cards often moves differently from those with lower price points with higher end cards offering slightly more stability. Certain types of cards, usually those of younger athletes, are better for speculative flipping and certain cards, generally those of retired legends, are better for long-term holds. Over the past year, while there were wild price fluctuations amongst all sports cards, the more speculative assets generally saw wider swings than the more established assets.
There is also the market for “sealed” wax, meaning unopened packs and boxes, which often represent nothing more than a lottery ticket. The vast majority of the time when someone “breaks” a box, the cards found within are much less valuable than the unopened box. But the thrill of possibility keeps people coming back. It’s like a slot machine for cards.
Finally, there is the market for “raw” ungraded cards, which for a while was a steady source of income for many dealers. They would buy the raw cards, submit them for grading and immediately sell for a profit as graded cards become much more valuable given the third party stamp of approval. This strategy becoming more commonplace and the explosion in interest in the market as a whole led to massive backlogs and price increases at grading companies. Generally the strategy is no longer as viable, but a collector with a keen eye can still take advantage of opportunities.
