2025 Art & Collectibles Outlook
The art and collectibles markets thrived during the low interest rate environment of the pandemic but have both struggled in the “higher for longer” environment of the past few years, as investors have shied away from riskier asset classes. 2024 did see a number of notable sales across categories, and results that indicated a slow recovery may be underway. There has been positive momentum heading into the new year, and early results have been promising, with some indication that we are heading into a “risk-on” environment that could benefit both art and collectibles.
Art - 2024 Overview
Notable Sales
The biggest auction sale of 2024 came when Belgian Surrealist master René Magritte’s 1954 painting “L’empire des Lumières” sold for $121.2 million at Christie’s Mica Ertegun Collection auction, exceeding the pre-sale estimate of $95 million and setting a new record for the artist. Perhaps the most notable art sale of the year was Maurizio Cattelan’s “Comedian,” an artwork that consists of a 35-cent banana duct-taped to the wall, which sold at Sotheby’s for $6.2 million, smashing the pre-sale estimate of $1 million - $1.5 million.
Other record sales include the Danner Memorial Window, which sold for $12.5 million, doubling its estimate and setting a new all-time record for a Tiffany Studios piece, Ed Ruscha’s 1964 “Standard Station, Ten-Cent Western Being Torn in Half,” which sold for an artist record $68.3 million, and Leonora Carrington’s “Les Distractions de Dagobert” which set a record for a British-born female artist when it sold for $28.5 million.
Auction house troubles
The major auction houses all saw declines in sales in 2024, with Sotheby’s auction sales dropping by 28%, Christie’s dropping by 16%, and Phillips dropping by 14%. Sotheby’s and Christie’s conducted layoffs in May, and late in the year, Sotheby’s announced it was laying off 100 more employees. It also needed a $1 billion capital injection from the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, not a particularly bullish sign for the business. The struggles the major auction houses had in 2024 were a reflection of the slow art market, though mid-level auction houses and specialty auction houses tended to perform better, showing greater strength at the lower rungs of the market.
2024 trends
The art market has undeniably hit a lull after the pandemic-era frothiness that defined 2020 and 2021, and results in 2024 pointed to more of a risk-off environment. While some unconventional outlier pieces grabbed headlines, capital continued to flow towards known quantities and avoided more speculative categories. For example, in the first half of 2024, sales of artwork by young artists fell by 39%, while the prices for “ultracontemporary” artists fell by a third in the past three years. Repeat sales analysis, which looks at artworks that previously been sold at auction and then sells again at auction, showed that the best performing category was the safer Impressionist and Modern art (with artists like Monet, Van Gogh, and Renoir), which saw an average 3.3% annual return on 656 sales, while ultra-contemporary art saw a -8.25% average loss on 31 sales.
Late in the year, both Christie’s and Sotheby’s had successful Old Masters auctions, a category of art known for its stability that includes artists like Rembrandt, Leonardo Da Vinci, and Michelangelo. With the equities and crypto markets rising dramatically after the election, new and younger collectors starting to build collections started to target established artists. While there were very few high-end sales during the year, the lower and middle markets saw positive momentum. Overall, there were promising signs that the art market has hit bottom and is ready to emerge from the darkness in 2025.
2025 Outlook
The health of the art market is strongly correlated to the broader economy and the performance of public and private markets, as collectors and investors tend to have made their money elsewhere first. New collectors have started to come into the market, and they generally start with well-known and blue-chip artists, often in the lower-cost prints market to start.
Art insiders are optimistic about where the market is headed in 2025, with some predicting that prices for lower and medium-end works will increase by 10% by the end of the year. According to the Art Basel and UBS 2024 survey, 91% of wealthy collectors are optimistic about the global art market’s performance over the next six months, which is up from 77% in 2023, indicating that a turnaround could be on the horizon.
For investors, 2025 could be a good time to enter the art market at the beginning of its recovery. Tracking artists who sell well at art fairs or who have highly anticipated museum exhibitions are good ways to predict what will become more popular and more in demand in the future.
Collectibles - 2024 Overview
Notable Sales
A number of high-end, rare items set new records in 2024, with prices well exceeding pre-sale estimates.
- Dinosaur Fossil: “Apex,” a nearly complete Stegosaurus skeleton, sold for $44.6 million, well above the pre-auction estimate of $4-$6 million, setting a new record for the most expensive fossil ever sold at auction.
- Movie Memorabilia: A screen-matched pair of Dorothy’s ruby slippers from “The Wizard of Oz” sold for $32.5 million, breaking the all-time record for the most expensive piece of movie memorabilia. The pre-sale estimate for the shoes was $3 million, and the last sale of a pair was for $2 million in 2012.
- Sports Memorabilia: Babe Ruth’s game-worn and photomatched jersey from the famed “called-shot” game against the Cubs in the 1932 World Series sold for a record $24.1 million, nearly doubling the previous record and banking a huge return for the seller, who bought the jersey for $940,000 in 2005.
- Comic book: A copy of Action Comics #1, Superman’s debut issue, sold for a record-breaking $6 million, beating the previous record of $5.3 million.
- Stamp: A rare 1868 Blue One-Cent Z-Grill stamp broke the record for the most expensive single U.S. stamp in history when it sold for $4.366 million.
- Toy: A rare 1979 Kenner rocket-firing Boba Fett prototype action figure sold for a record-breaking $1.34 million more than double the previous record of $525,000 set last year.
Other notable sales included $8 million for a collection of Michael Jordan’s sneakers, $5.4 million for one of Sylvester Stallone’s watches, $4.4 million for Shohei Ohtani’s 50th home-run ball, $3 million for a Magic: The Gathering “Alpha Black Lotus” card, and $2.8 million for one of John Lennon’s guitars.
Industry News
There were several big acquisitions within the collectibles industry, none bigger than auction giant eBay buying prominent collectibles auction house Goldin as part of a larger partnership with Collectors Holdings. For their part, Collectors, who already owned industry-leading grading company PSA, bought another grading company, SGC. The industry has become dominated by three companies - eBay, Collectors and Fanatics, the latter of whom successfully launched Fanatics Fest, a major collectibles convention in New York City.
Sotheby’s pushed further into sports memorabilia, holding a “Sports Week” in April, partnering with Fanatics to sell high-end trading cards, and partnering with the NBA for regular auctions of game-worn memorabilia. As collectibles companies grow bigger, and established auction houses continue to branch into collectibles, it can only help bring the asset class more credibility and exposure to the mainstream.
2024 Trends
Similar to art, the collectibles market has struggled since 2021, but there are signs that some categories have hit bottom and are ready to rebound. The CardLadder 50, a measure of blue-chip sports cards, was up 5% in 2024. High-end assets in most categories performed well, as the market saw a flight to quality, with investors and collectors targeting known quantities. However, broader measures of luxury asset classes struggled, with the Liv-Ex Fine Wine 1000 down 11.8% and the WatchCharts Overall Market Index down 5.8%.
As always, rarity and desirability drove the collectibles market, particularly at the high-end, where 1 of 1 items commanded significant prices. Blue-chip items from blue-chip athletes and entertainers have bucked the broader downward trend in the market. Movie and music memorabilia emerged as legitimate categories, with rare items tied to legendary artists consistently beating expectations at auction. Overall, there were signs for optimism across the asset class, with positive signals after years of struggle.
2025 Outlook
As with art, the collectibles market is strongly correlated with the broader market, and the strength shown in the markets towards the end of 2024 should augur well for collectibles in 2025, as the economy transitions to a “risk-on” environment. Expect a slow recovery for many categories, with a quicker rebound for luxury items such as watches, handbags, wine, and whiskey, as younger crypto millionaires start spending their money. As newer collectors join the industry, there is likely to be a further “flight to quality” as blue-chip items see more demand.
There will be a continued emphasis on photomatching, authentication, and overall provenance, as the amount of money spent on items makes it paramount that buyers know what they are getting. Investors should always ensure that any item they acquire meets the industry standards.
Movie and music memorabilia should continue to be hot categories, and early Bob Dylan and Jeff Beck auctions seem to confirm that, with almost all items exceeding pre-sale high estimates. A major Superman movie is coming this summer, so expect prices of Superman comics to rise in anticipation of its release. Women’s sports cards, led by WNBA superstar Caitlin Clark, are primed for a breakout this year, as women’s sports grab more mainstream attention.
Investors should feel cautiously optimistic for these asset classes as they should build off a promising end to 2024 to have a positive 2025.
